#WOIntl How to attack the $200K P4

By Ed DeRosa for CanadianInternational.Com
October 26, 2013

$200,000 guaranteed Pick 4
Pattison Canadian International day on Sunday, October 27, at Woodbine
Races 8-11

Click the link for FREE BRISnet Ultimate Past Performances for Sunday's Late Pick 4!

RACE
A
B
C
EP TAYLOR
2,4,7,10
1,3,5,8,9
 
9
10
5,6
2,3,7,8
INTERNATIONAL
11
1,3,7
2,5,8,9
11
13
7,8,9,12
 
 

UPDATE: Key scratches in #WOIntl P4, including 2 lone As for me. I'm now playing it A w/ B w/ AB w/ B & AB w/ B w/ A w/ B

Don’t let those three single “A” horses fool you, there is no free square in this $200,000 guaranteed Pick 4 on Sunday at Woodbine. Rather, I think one of those three horses--#10 Dene Court in race 9, #11 Slumber in race 10 (the Pattison Canadian International), and #13 Bear On Fire in race 11—offer the best value as singles.

I like Dene Court and Bear On Fire because they look like speed of the speed in the non stakes races, which are both one-turn sprints on Polytrack. I consider Dene Court the most likely winner in the whole sequence and would be the horse I lean the most on of any of the three singles.

Race 8 is the E.P. Taylor, which (CLICHÉ ALERT!) I see as the most wide open of the quartet. Michael Matz ran 1-2 in the local prep for this one, the Canadian Stakes, with Minakshi and Colonial Flag, respectively. Both fit in here again, though they’re both picking up weight from any assignment this year, which is a feather in the cap of Fitful Skies who drops to a 124-pound impost off two 131-pound assignments in Germany where she won a Group 3 last out, and her 120-122 Brisnet.com Class Ratings from her efforts in France this summer
easily fit with this group. My other “A” is Tannery, who ran well when chasing her stablemate in the Flower Bowl off a fourth-place finish to males in the Sword Dancer.

Race 10 is the Pattison Canadian International, and I have Slumber as a lone “A” having expected the Joe Hirsch Turf Classic Invitational to be his coming out party last out, but he was 1 ¼ lengths short of now-fourtime Grade 1 winner Little Mike off an adventurously wide trip in which he ran pretty quick early despite being sixth at the first call. Having shown that early zip should keep him in touch with Hyper, who will have to go off the rail and Now We Can, who likes to press the pace. If looking for a deep closer, Lucayan is the play.

Here’s how I’m playing it: (See Ed's updated picks above due to scratches)

2, 4, 7, 10 with 5, 6, 10 with 1, 3, 7, 11 with 7, 8, 9, 12, 13 = $48
1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 7, 8, 9, 10 with 10 with 1, 2, 3, 5, 7, 8, 9, 11 with 7, 8, 9, 12, 13 = $81
1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 7, 8, 9, 10 with 2, 3, 5, 6, 7, 8, 10 with 11 with 13 = $12.60
2, 4, 7, 10 with 10 with 1, 3, 7, 11 with 7, 8, 9, 12, 13 = $16
2, 4, 7, 10 with 5, 6, 10 with 11 with 7, 8, 9, 12, 13 = $12
2, 4, 7, 10 with 5, 6, 10 with 1, 3, 7, 11 with 13 = $9.60

This costs $179.20. If you’re looking for a cheaper play, you can cut “C” horses from any ticket. Good luck!

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Ed DeRosa is the Director of Marketing for BRISnet. Follow Ed on Twitter @EJXD2

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